Loading...

Research on Crops

Assessment and modelling of desertification risk and economic impacts in an arid agricultural region of Russia


DOI: 10.31830/2348-7542.2026.ROC-1293    | Article Id: ROC-1293 | Page : 77-93
Citation :- Assessment and modelling of desertification risk and economic impacts in an arid agricultural region of Russia. Res. Crop. 27: 77-93
KORNEEVA E. A. korneeva.eva@list.ru
Address : Federal Scientific Center of Agroecology, Complex Melioration and Protective Afforestation, Russian Academy of Sciences, 400062, Volgograd, 97, University Ave., Russia
Submitted Date : 12-02-2026
Accepted Date : 4-03-2026
Online Published:

Abstract

Desertification poses a critical constraint to sustainable crop production in arid and semi-arid zones, where conventional linear risk assessments often fail to capture threshold-driven ecosystem shifts. This study develops and validates a nonlinear desertification risk model grounded in the tipping-point concept, integrating key soil and topographic drivers–specifically, the expansion rates of eroded and secondary saline soils, slope gradient, and humus depletion. Each driver is transformed via sigmoidal functions to explicitly represent the nonlinear transition from stable baseline conditions through a critical threshold into a degradation regime. Validated at the municipal level in the Volgograd region of Russia, the model shows strong concordance with independent Land Degradation Neutrality (LDN) metrics and official economic damage assessments, identifying areas with the most negative LDN values as actively degrading. Scenario analysis further demonstrates that agroecological interventions are most effective during the transitional phase, capable of reducing integrated risk by up to 40%. The framework thus provides a practical, decision‑support tool for spatially targeted risk diagnosis, land‑use prioritisation, and enhancing the ecological and economic resilience of dryland cropping systems.

Keywords

Arid region desertification land degradation neutrality nonlinear modelling

References

FAO (2015). Status of the world’s soil resources (SWSR). Rome: FAO. pp.650.
Gorelick, N., Hancher, M., Dixon, M., Ilyushchenko, S., Thau, D. and Moore, R. (2017). Google earth engine: Planetary-scale geospatial analysis for everyone. Remote Sens. Environ. 202: 18–27.
Hemraj, D. A. and Carstensen, J. (2025). Towards ecosystem-based techniques for tipping point detection. Biol. Rev. 100: 892–919.
Iderawumi, A. M. and Kamal, T. O. (2022). Green manure for agricultural sustainability and improvement of soil fertility. Farm. Manage. 7: 1-8.
Korneeva, E. A. (2023). Evaluation of environmental damage associated with desertification of arid territories on the south of European Russia. Arid Ecosyst. 13: 59–64.
Korneeva, E. A. (2025). Economic impact of land degradation on agricultural production in arid regions in Russia. Res. Crop. 26: 279-84.
Korneeva, E. A. and Belyaev, A. I. (2023). Assessment of the impact of forest reclamation measures for the adaptation of agriculture to climate change in the South of the Russian plain. Forests 14: doi:10.3390/f14081593.
Kulik, K. N., Belyaev, A. I., Barabanov, A. T. (2024). National Action Program to Combat Desertification in the Volgograd Region. Volgograd: Federal Scientific Center of Agroecology RAS. pp. 256.
Lal, R. (2004). Soil carbon sequestration to mitigate climate change. Geoderma 123: 1–22.
Lenton, T. M., Held, H., Kriegler, E., Hall, J. W., Lucht, W., Rahmstorf, S. and Schellnhuber, H. J. (2008). Tipping elements in the Earth system. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 105: 1786-93.
Lenton, T. M., Laybourn, L., Armstrong McKay, D. I., Loriani, S., Abrams, J. F., Lade, S. J., Donges, J. F., Milkoreit, M., Smith, S. R., Bailey, E., Powell, T., Fesenfeld, L., Zimm, C., Boulton, C. A., Buxton, J. E., Dyke, J. G. and Ghadiali, A. (2023). Global Tipping Points Report 2023: Summary Report. Exeter: University of Exeter. Pp. 30.
Manaenkov, A. S. and Korneeva, E. A. (2015). Efficiency of anti-deflation forest reclamation of arable lands in the south of European Russia. Bulletin of the Russian Agricultural Science. 4: 40–42.
Montgomery, D. R. (2007). Soil erosion and agricultural sustainability. PNAS 104: 13268-272.
Oldfield, E. E., Bradford, M. A. and Wood, S. A. S. (2019). Soil organic matter and crop yields: a meta-analysis. Global Change Biol. 25: 1–13.
Panagos, P., Borrelli, P., Meusburger, K., Alewell, C., Lugato, E. and Montanarella, L. (2015). The new assessment of soil loss by water erosion in Europe. Environ. Sci. Policy. 54: 438-47.
Pugacheva, A. M., Vasilchenko, A. A. (2025). Features of the formation of arid phenomena in subarid territories (on the example of the Volgograd region). Sci. Agron. J. 4:.18–27.
Scheffer, M., Carpenter, S., Foley, J. A., Folke, C. and Walker, B. (2001). Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems. Nature 413: 591-96.
Shashko, D. I. (1985). Agro-Climatic Resources of the USSR. Leningrad: Hydrometeoizdat. Pp. 248.
Stavi, I., Thevs, N. and Priori, S. (2021). Soil salinity and sodicity in drylands: A review of causes, effects, monitoring, and restoration measures. Front. Environ. Sci. 9: doi.org/10.3389/ fenvs.2021.712831.
Surmach, G. P. (1992). Relief Formation, Formation of Forest-Steppe, Modern Erosion and Anti-Erosion Measures. Volgograd: All-Russian Research Institute of Agroforestry. pp. 175.
Tsvetnov, E. V., Makarov, O. A., Tsvetnova, O. B. and Kryuchkov, N. R. (2021). Integrated assessment of land degradation neutrality balance and ecological-economic damage in the Volgograd region. Achie. Sci. Technol. AIC 35: 12–15.
UNCCD (2017). Land Degradation Neutrality: Scientific Conceptual Framework. Bonn: UNCCD. Pp. 44.
Wang, J., Wang, Yu. and Xu, D. (2024). Desertification in northern China from 2000 to 2020: The spatial–temporal processes and driving mechanisms. Ecol. Inform. 82: doi:10.1016/ j.ecoinf.2024.102769.
 
 
 
 
 

Global Footprints