Abstract

In this paper, the potentials of Chinese potato yield per unit are estimated by light use efficiency (LUE) and agricultural ecological zoning (AEZ) model, and projected by ARIMA model. The results showed that maximum potential of Chinese potato yield in the future estimated by AEZ model was 43 500 kg/ha, while its yields in 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020, projected on ARIMA model basis, were 16,575 kg/ha, 16,942 kg/ha, 17,129 kg/ha, 17,318 kg/ha, 17,509 kg/ha and 17,702 kg/ha, respectively. The longer the time projected, the less reliable the result. And the potential of Chinese potato yield will become increasingly difficult to rise in the future. The results are of reference significance to the potato production in China and even similar places else in the world.